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President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has welcomed the World Bank’s October 2026 Nigeria Development Update, titled Beyond the Federal Purse: How Higher Revenues Reshaped State Priorities. He said its findings confirm that the administration’s economic reforms are delivering results and placing the economy on a firmer footing for sustained growth.
The President noted the World Bank’s finding that the poverty rate has stabilised for the first time since 2019. The Bank expects poverty to decline gradually as GDP grows faster than the population.
The report shows the economy grew 4.2 per cent in the first half of 2026, up from 3.9 per cent in the first half of 2025, despite the impact of the conflict in the Middle East. The World Bank projects growth to average at least 4.4 per cent between 2026 and 2028.
On prices, the report notes that inflation fell from 27.6 per cent in January 2025 to 15.2 per cent in December 2025. Higher global fuel prices linked to the Middle East conflict have since slowed the decline, but the World Bank expects inflation to ease to about 12 per cent by 2028.
Nigeria’s external position also strengthened. The current account surplus rose to US$12.0 billion, or 7.0 per cent of GDP, in the first half of 2026, up from US$8.6 billion a year earlier. Gross external reserves increased from US$45.5 billion at the end of 2025 to US$53.8 billion at the end of August 2026.
The report credits the reforms since 2023 with raising federation revenues by 69 per cent in real terms between 2023 and 2025, with states as the largest beneficiaries. States used the additional resources to increase capital spending by 151 per cent in real terms over the same period. Most of the increase went to roads and other transport, agriculture, energy and housing. Twenty-nine of 33 states shifted their spending towards economic infrastructure, while real social spending per person rose in all but one state.
The World Bank further found that:
• internally generated revenue grew in real terms in 31 of 35 states;
• 21 states reduced their debt-to-GDP ratio between 2021 and 2025;
• Nigeria’s overall public debt is expected to fall from 40.0 per cent of GDP in 2025 to 38.1 per cent in 2026.
“These findings confirm that the difficult but necessary decisions to remove the petrol subsidy, unify the foreign exchange market and strengthen fiscal discipline have raised revenues, stabilised the economy and created fiscal space for every tier of government to invest in its people.
“The dividends of reform are becoming visible. But more work remains to ensure they fully translate into better living standards for every household, starting with lower food prices and decent jobs for our young people.
“Our administration will stay the course of reform and redouble its focus on inclusive growth under the Renewed Hope Agenda.
“We will continue to expand targeted cash transfers, which have already reached more than 10 million households. We will accelerate the deployment of CNG, raise agricultural productivity, and improve access to affordable healthcare and quality education, so that the prosperity being created is shared by all.
“I urge state governments to use their higher revenues more prudently and prioritise projects that improve the living standards of Nigerians, and the health and education of our people.
“I commend the Economic Management Team led by the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, state governors and all stakeholders for their cooperation in implementing these reforms. I assure Nigerians that the best is yet to come under the Renewed Hope Agenda 2.0, which will accelerate the delivery of shared prosperity for all Nigerians.”
Bayo Onanuga
Special Adviser to the President
(Information & Strategy)
October 11, 2026.
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