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Donald Duke’s emergence as PRP Presidential candidate is all part of the game to scatter Southern votes from going to one person. The opposition understands that if it can scatter the votes of the South, it can injure the interest of the ruling party.
Remember that early enough, when President Tinubu became unsure of the body language of the North, he embarked on a deliberate “Southern Unification” strategy by making sure he brought all Southern Governors into the fold of the All Progressives Congress. By doing that, he positioned the ruling party to be battle-ready ahead of any political shenanigans that could be played by the North.
President Tinubu had calculated a situation where Rivers, Delta and Akwa Ibom would checkmate the voting strength of the KKK (Kano, Kaduna and Katsina) States, while other Southern States would follow that same line.
It was a political calculation built on the assumption that the South would move largely as one bloc when the battle for 2027 eventually arrives.
But politics is never that straightforward.
With a political equation that now has Seyi Makinde from the West, Peter Obi from the East, Donald Duke in the mix, and speculatively Goodluck Jonathan from the South, it becomes increasingly difficult to expect intact bloc votes for the ruling party across the Southern region.
The more Southern political heavyweights that enter the race, the more fragmented the Southern voting pattern becomes. What looked like a well-structured political fortress could suddenly become a battlefield of competing interests, ambitions and loyalties.
If the Southern votes are successfully divided among multiple strong contenders, the political advantage automatically shifts elsewhere. The South may produce the biggest names on the ballot, but the ultimate decision could still rest in the hands of the North.
That is why, despite all the calculations, alignments and permutations currently taking place, everyone may eventually have to look up to the North to determine how the 2027 electoral victory will shape up and who ultimately carries the day when the dust finally settles.
The battle for 2027 may not be decided by who is strongest in the South. It may be decided by who best navigates the North while the South remains busy sharing its votes among several formidable contenders.
I am Ekene Aninze Esq..
SB E-news.
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