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The assessment report was released two weeks ago. If Khamenei dies, it will likely be the radical commanders of the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) who will seize power—men whose identity is purely military, not theological.
Men who have no interest in diplomacy, no clerical legitimacy to preserve, and no political leverage.
Khamenei is 85 years old. He is a religious man. He governs through spiritual authority, political maneuvering, and calculated restraint. The IRGC, on the other hand, governs by force of arms.
This is the lesson of Iraq that America has never learned. Eliminate Saddam, and you get the Islamic State. Destabilize the top… and you unleash something even worse at the bottom.
The CIA didn’t say not to do it. It said: don’t assume that killing the leader will end the regime. Iran is a system that doesn’t rest on one man.
The Supreme Leader is the face. The IRGC is the backbone.
Tonight, Trump called on the Iranian people to seize the opportunity and rise up.
But if Khamenei is dead and the IRGC takes control, the people in revolt won’t be facing an aging ayatollah.
They could be facing soldiers who have nothing left to lose.
SB E-news.
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