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By Aare Amerijoye Dotb
As Nigeria inches toward the 2027 general election, the winds of political change are stirring again, this time with a force bolstered not just by sentiment, but data, lived experiences, and the unforgiving arithmetic of governance failure.
Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, the Waziri of Adamawa, who secured 6,984,520 votes in 2023 despite electoral discrepancies, is now positioned, politically and statistically,to unseat President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, whose honeymoon with Nigerians has long expired. Below are seven indisputable, data-driven reasons why Atiku is on a clear path to victory.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), food inflation skyrocketed to 40.66% in May 2025, the highest in over 30 years. When Tinubu assumed office in May 2023, the figure stood at 24.82%. The prices of essential food items like rice (₦78,000/bag), beans (₦72,000), and yam (₦3,500/tuber) are now beyond the reach of the average Nigerian household.
The World Bank’s June 2025 report stated that over 104 million Nigerians now live below the poverty line of $1.90/day, up from 89 million in 2022. These are not just statistics; they are votes, votes against hunger and in favor of change.
In May 2023, ₦463 exchanged for $1. As of June 2025, the rate has plunged to ₦1,515/$, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). That is a 228% depreciation in under two years, one of the fastest currency crashes globally.
This devaluation has:
Spiked import costs by over 312% (NBS trade data),
Triggered hyperinflation across transport, housing, and energy sectors,
Eroded salaries and savings.
Atiku, who co-piloted Nigeria’s economic team during the debt cancellation era (2003–2007), has consistently advocated for managed float systems and capital market reforms that would have prevented such a disaster.
The Debt Management Office (DMO) revealed that as of Q1 2025, Nigeria’s total public debt had ballooned to ₦121.67 trillion, up from ₦77 trillion in May 2023, a staggering ₦44 trillion increase in 22 months.
Debt-to-GDP ratio has reached 51.2%, approaching the 60% IMF redline.
₦8.25 trillion was spent on debt servicing in 2024 alone, 74% of government revenue (Budget Office).
Infrastructure growth remains stagnant despite the borrowing spree.
Atiku has always championed public-private partnerships (PPPs) and institutional investment models as more sustainable funding routes, positions supported by the World Economic Forum and Moody’s Ratings.
Despite boasting about GDP growth of 2.98% in Q1 2025 (NBS), Nigeria under Tinubu suffers from jobless growth. The youth unemployment rate sits at 53.4%, according to the African Development Bank’s 2025 mid-year report.
1 in 2 graduates remains unemployed.
Over 13 million school-age children are out of school (UNESCO, 2024).
Over 4.5 million Nigerians entered poverty in 2024 alone (World Bank).
Atiku’s job creation roadmap includes reviving over 20,000 moribund MSMEs, broadband expansion for tech employment, and a 5-year infrastructure bond that could generate over 3 million jobs.
In 2023, Atiku won 12 Northern states: Adamawa, Taraba, Bauchi, Gombe, Sokoto, Katsina, Kebbi, Zamfara, Jigawa, Yobe, Borno, and Kaduna, despite internal sabotage. Tinubu managed only 5.
Current polls by NOI Polls (Q2 2025) show:
64% disapproval of Tinubu in the North-West.
71% of Northern youths feel the government “betrayed the region.”
58% of 2023 APC voters in the North now rate Atiku as “more competent.”
With the rising cost of living, insecurity in Zamfara, Kaduna, and Niger, and the failed relocation of CBN and FAAN to Lagos, the North is recalibrating its loyalty.
Despite winning the South-West in 2023, Tinubu is now under fire from his base:
Lagos State reports the highest urban inflation (43.8%) in Nigeria (NBS, May 2025).
Fuel subsidy removal raised pump price from ₦185/L to over ₦900/L, triggering protests in Oyo, Ondo, and Ekiti.
In the South-East and South-South, where Atiku scored over 2.8 million votes, his calls for restructuring, resource control, and regional autonomy are gaining renewed popularity. Tinubu’s silence on IPOB dialogue, Niger Delta insecurity, and coastal erosion worsens the discontent.
In 2023, Peter Obi polled 6,101,533 votes, many from Atiku’s traditional base. But recent data from ANAP Foundation’s 2025 national survey shows:
52% of previous Obi voters are “likely” to back Atiku in 2027 if a stronger coalition emerges.
Labour Party’s rating dropped from 31% to 14% nationally.
With discussions already ongoing for a PDP-LP merger or alliance, a unified opposition could replicate or surpass the 2015 APC model, a devastating scenario for Tinubu.
2027 will be decided by data, not drama,“Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.” – Aldous Huxley
Bola Tinubu rode to power on the crest of regional calculations and fragmented opposition. In 2027, the country will vote with its scars, not with its sentiment. Nigerians have tasted the sour fruit of misguided economic experimentation, rising corruption indices, and brutal poverty.
Atiku Abubakar stands not just as an alternative,but as an antidote.
His defeat of Tinubu in 2027 is not a matter of ambition.
It is a democratic inevitability.
Aare Amerijoye DOT.B
Director General
The Narrative Force.
SB E-news
SB events magazine
Efficiency magazine
Efficiency award for Excellence EAE.
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