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By Aare Amerijoye Dotb .
When you see APC defenders on
Facebook, Twitter, WhatsApp, or other social media outlets, or even in print and broadcast media, talking about a second term for Bola Ahmed Tinubu, do not be deceived into thinking they are making a case based on his performance. They are not.
Mention the excruciating suffering that has gripped Nigerians under his inept leadership, and their response will not be to defend his governance with facts or policies. Instead, they will argue as though the Nigerian Constitution guarantees Tinubu a second term, regardless of merit.
They will speak as if the Yoruba ethnic group, set to hold the presidency for 12 out of 26 years in this republic, is marginalised and must continue in power at all costs. These misguided apologists will even demonise the Hausa-Fulani, forgetting that Tinubu would have been nowhere near Aso Rock without the 5,598,686 votes he secured from the North, votes that far outweighed the 2,278,857 votes he managed to scrape from his Yoruba homeland.
And when you remind them that Tinubu lost Southern Nigeria outright in 2023, with Peter Obi clinching 4,020,667 votes, leaving Tinubu with a humiliating 3,196,040 votes and Atiku 1,751,047 votes, their response will not be introspection. Instead, they will cling to the fragmentation of Atiku and Obi’s votes, dismissing the reality that a united opposition would have trounced Tinubu by 2,575,674 votes. But some of these lazy defenders do not have the patience or intellectual discipline of polemicists; they react only to headlines, unable to engage with hard facts.
Some will go further, invoking religion, claiming that God is with Tinubu and will grant him a second term. This raises a question: why would God endorse a ruler whose policies have brought untold suffering upon His own people? Why would the same God who allowed PDP to lose in 2015 now allow APC to continue in 2027, when the overwhelming evidence points to a nation in economic freefall, social disarray, and mass suffering?
When confronted with data, statistics, and electoral facts, APC defenders resort to their final refuge: defeatism. They insist that Obi and Atiku can never unite, as though they have divine authority over political alliances. This is their last comfort, their final delusion.
And they will make empty boasts that APC is “taking over” the South East. Really? Based on what? When the numbers from the 2023 election tell an entirely different story? Tinubu’s performance in the South East was nothing short of abysmal:
Enugu: 4,772 votes
Abia: 8,914 votes
Ebonyi: 42,402 votes
Imo: 66,406 votes
A grand total of 122,494 votes. If this is their definition of “taking over,” then delusion has reached its peak. And 2027 will be even worse for them.
Under Tinubu’s reign, Nigerians have experienced nothing but hardship,crushing inflation, food insecurity, skyrocketing fuel prices, a collapsing naira, and APC expects the same South East that rejected him before to now embrace him? This is not just wishful thinking; it is political madness.
And then there is the question of the South East’s political future. If APC’s defenders claim they will have the support of the South East in 2027, they should answer a simple question: What does a second term for Tinubu offer the region? If Tinubu completes another four years, power must shift to the North in 2031, meaning the South East will be sidelined until at least 2043.
Is that acceptable? Is that what the South East should settle for?
Or does a more logical path exist, one that aligns the South East with Atiku in 2027, secures his presidency for just four years, and then ensures that a South Eastern candidate takes over in 2031? The answer is clear. The APC propaganda machine will never admit it, but their nightmare scenario is a unified front between the North and the South East in 2027. That is what keeps them awake at night.
If you tell them that the South East, populated with 93% Christians, and the South South, populated with 85% Christians, would never vote for Tinubu/Shetima’s Muslim-Muslim ticket as they did in 2023 and that they would be even more decisive in 2027,the APC defenders will resort into empty rhetorics and gibberish.
When you present these irrefutable realities, APC defenders retreat into insults, claiming that power of incumbency will save Tinubu. They will tell you that elections no longer matter because Tinubu will rig his way through. They speak as if Tinubu is God, as if the will of the Nigerian people is powerless before him. But history teaches us otherwise.
Oppression breeds resistance. Suffering ignites revolutions. APC’s survival strategy is to convince Nigerians that resistance is futile, but history, from the fall of military dictatorships to the collapse of the Third Reich tells a different story.
Look at the numbers again, and APC’s doom in 2027 becomes clear. Tinubu’s presidency depends entirely on Northern votes. But Northern support for APC is plummeting. In 2015, Buhari secured 12,374,890 votes from the North. In 2019, his total Northern votes dropped to 11 million plus. By 2023, Tinubu’s Northern votes had collapsed to 5,598,686.
That is a 55% decline. That is not just a decline, it is a rejection.
Meanwhile, Atiku’s support was not lost on merit but divided by Peter Obi’s candidacy. Obi did not take votes from APC, he took them from PDP. This is the key fact APC defenders refuse to acknowledge. The true nightmare for APC is not just Atiku or Obi, it is their potential unity in 2027. Or better still the unity of opposition against Tinubu not to talk of the internal conspiracy brewing within APC.
And so, APC’s final argument is fear. They whisper that Tinubu is invincible, that he cannot be defeated. They mistake arrogance for inevitability. They ignore that the overwhelming anger of a nation cannot be rigged away forever.
The suffering masses of Nigeria will not bow to incumbency. They will not surrender to rigging. The weight of their suffering will sweep away any illusion of Tinubu’s permanence.
Pearl S. Buck once wrote, “When hope is taken away from a people, moral degeneration follows swiftly.” Tinubu’s APC has taken away Nigerians’ hope, but rather than degenerating, the people are awakening. They see the deceit. They feel the pain. And they will fight back.
Anne Morrow Lindbergh once said, “Only in growth, reform, and change, paradoxically enough, is true security to be found.” Nigerians now understand this truth: security does not lie in APC’s recycled failures. It lies in reform, change, and the rejection of this disastrous administration.
Tell APC defenders this:
The people are coming.
The suffering masses will decide 2027.
And no amount of propaganda will stop them.
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