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Aare Amerijoye DOT.B.
Numbers do not lie. The trajectory of the All Progressives Congress (APC) since 2015 tells a compelling story of decline, discontent, and disillusionment. From the moment the party rode to power on a wave of propaganda and exaggerated promises, it has steadily lost its grip on the electorate. The 2023 elections were the most damning indictment yet, a clear indication that the APC has lost favour with Nigerians. And if history, statistics, and political realities are anything to go by, then the 2027 elections will be her ultimate downfall.
In 2015, the APC, under Muhammadu Buhari, secured victory with 15,424,921 votes (53.96%) against the PDP’s 12,853,162 votes. The North overwhelmingly supported Buhari, contributing over 80% (12,374,890 votes) of his total, while the South added only 3,050,031 votes. At the time, Buhari’s reputation as a “man of integrity” and his promises of tackling corruption and insecurity resonated with the electorate. But as Francis Bacon profoundly observed, “The monuments of wit survive the monuments of power.” Buhari’s legacy of empty rhetoric and failed governance has outlived the fleeting power he wielded, leaving Nigerians with nothing but broken dreams.
Fast forward to 2019, and cracks were already visible. Despite being an incumbent, Buhari’s vote count dropped to 15,191,847, a loss of over 300,000 votes. The North, once his stronghold, withdrew 674,857 votes, signaling mounting dissatisfaction. Atiku Abubakar, despite contending against the full might of an incumbent government that weaponised institutions against him, still managed 11,262,978 votes, a testament to his enduring appeal and the public’s growing yearning for competent leadership.
Then came 2023, and the APC’s house of cards truly began to collapse. Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the party’s candidate, managed only 8,794,726 votes, a staggering drop of 6.4 million votes from 2019. This was not just a numerical decline; it was a resounding rejection of APC’s governance. The North, once the party’s electoral backbone, had all but abandoned it. From 12.3 million votes in 2015, APC’s northern support crashed to just 5,598,686 votes in 2023,a devastating loss of over 50% of its core northern votes.
Even more damning was the fact that the PDP, despite facing internal sabotage and external obstacles, still secured 6,984,520 votes. The Labour Party, which did not even exist as a formidable force before 2023, clinched 6,101,533 votes. Combined, the opposition’s total stood at 13,086,053 votes, over 4 million votes more than the APC. The message was clear. Nigerians had rejected the APC, but their discontent was split among opposition parties. The 2027 elections will provide a singular opportunity for the PDP to consolidate this growing resistance against APC’s misrule into an electoral tsunami that will sweep the party out of power.
The APC’s decline is not merely numerical; it is deeply rooted in her abysmal governance and catastrophic policy failures. Under Tinubu’s government, Nigeria has seen an economic crisis of unprecedented proportions. The hasty removal of fuel subsidies, hailed by the administration as a necessary reform, has plunged millions into deeper poverty. Inflation has skyrocketed, making basic food items luxuries for ordinary Nigerians. The naira, once a symbol of economic resilience, has suffered an unprecedented freefall, reducing the purchasing power of the average citizen. Even the so-called “economic experts” within the APC government have been unable to provide a coherent strategy to rescue the nation from the abyss.
Security remains a nightmare. The same APC that promised to end Boko Haram and banditry has watched as insecurity worsened. From Katsina to Kaduna, Zamfara to Plateau, killings, kidnappings, and terrorism have become the norm. Under Buhari, security failures were excused as “legacy issues.” Under Tinubu, such excuses no longer hold. The APC has simply failed.
Even within her own ranks, the APC is crumbling under the weight of her contradictions. The South, which had expected major representation in Tinubu’s government, now feels betrayed, watching helplessly as key positions are allocated based on personal loyalty rather than competence. The North, once the kingmaker, now sees itself as a pawn in a game it no longer controls. The party, built on an alliance of convenience, is unraveling faster than it can be repaired.
In contrast, the PDP remains the only party with the structure, experience, and leadership capacity to rescue Nigeria from the depths of economic ruin and political instability. Atiku Abubakar has consistently demonstrated a clear vision for Nigeria’s future, emphasising economic revitalisation, unity, and security.
Atiku is the only candidate with a track record of economic transformation. As Vice President (1999-2007), he spearheaded the liberalisation of Nigeria’s economy, attracting foreign investments, strengthening the private sector, and creating millions of jobs. The economic prosperity of that era stands in stark contrast to the suffering Nigerians endure today under APC’s reckless and clueless policies.
Moreover, Atiku understands Nigeria’s complex diversity. His ability to build bridges across ethnic and religious divides makes him the ideal leader for a nation that is currently at her most fractured. While the APC thrives on division and sectional politics, Atiku has always advocated for inclusivity, fairness, and national unity. Katherine Hepburn’s words resonate here: “If you obey all the rules, you miss all the fun.” Atiku has defied political norms, refused to be caged by tribal sentiments, and instead embraced a vision of a united Nigeria.
The APC’s fate in 2027 is already written in numbers and realities. A party that has lost 6.4 million votes in four years is not on a path to victory; it is on a death spiral. No amount of propaganda, media manipulation, or electoral gymnastics can erase the suffering that Nigerians have endured under APC’s misrule.
In contrast, PDP and Atiku Abubakar stand as the only viable alternative. The 2023 elections proved that the APC can be defeated when the opposition unites. With a more strategic approach, proper alignment, and a rallying cry to rescue Nigeria, the PDP is poised for victory.
The question is not whether APC will lose in 2027; the question is how overwhelmingly Nigerians will cast them aside. The numbers have spoken. The suffering of Nigerians has spoken. Now, it is time for Atiku Abubakar and the PDP to step in and offer the redemption that Nigeria so desperately needs. The winds of change are blowing. And as history has taught us, no amount of deceit can hold back a people determined to reclaim their destiny.
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